Forecasts when Standard & Domestic Content holdbacks release for payment. Each activation pauses 25 days, then releases into the next Palmetto funding file (Tue: prior Wed–Sun txns · Thu: prior Mon–Tue txns).
Total holdback dollars paid out each week/month/quarter, bucketed by pay date (when money actually moves). Includes Closed actuals (already paid), Standard paused forecast, and the PTO-Released HB forecast. The week of Jun 15 reflects the two files that paid this week (6/16 + 6/18). Follows the Week / Month / Quarter toggle; the line is the cumulative total.
Period (pay date)
Closed (paid)
Standard HB
DC HB
HB Released at PTO
Total
Cumulative
🔒 Funding File Lock Budget — by Lock Date (Mon & Wed)
Each file by lock date. Monday lock → Tuesday pay (expirations Thu–Mon); Wednesday lock → Thursday pay (expirations Tue–Wed). Grey "paid" bars are closed actuals; amber/blue = standard forecast (paused inventory); purple = PTO-Released HB, dated from the outstanding-PTO backlog (2,275 projects, ~$7.3M) and now valued by each project's org × state holdback rate (see pricing table below) via each project's Expected PTO date + org install→PTO lag. The 6/16 file is heavy because ~$2.1M of past-due projects roll into it; treat that as catch-up that may clear over several files. "rr" in the table = run-rate cross-check.
Lock (2:31am EST)
Pays
Standard HB
DC HB
HB Released at PTO
File Total
Cumulative
📊 Forecast vs Actual Tracker
Actuals loaded from the full paid history (Apr 2 – Jun 11, 21 closed files). Forecast baseline is locked to the original 6/9 snapshot (it doesn't move when newer inventory arrives — that's what keeps forecast-vs-actual honest). The forward budget panels above use the latest 6/10 inventory; this tracker measures the original forecast. As each file closes, enter its actual paid total — saved to this dashboard across sessions.
Published per-watt holdback rates for the PTO-Released HB orgs. Std = Standard holdback; DC PV / DC PV+Stor = Domestic Content holdback (PV-only vs PV+storage systems). The forecast values each pending project by its org × state realized average from payment history (which embeds these rates × actual system size); this table is the rate reference. Validated: implied $/W from actual payments matches these published rates.
Org
State
Std $/W
DC PV $/W
DC PV+Stor $/W
Avg system size used for project estimates: EMPWR ~10kW · Ion ~8.4kW · Our World ~8.3kW · SunSolar ~9.8kW · Inty ~7.5kW (from payment history).
📈 PTO-Released HB — Avg $/Project Monthly Tracker
Weighted average holdback per project for PTO-Released HB orgs, pulled from monthly transaction exports (filter Standard + DC Holdback events for PTO-Released HB orgs, group by project, average). Add a row each month. The rolling weighted average × weekly approval pace = projected weekly payout — used to validate TUE_RR / THU_RR in the run-rate extension.
Month
Projects
Avg $/Project
Rolling Wtd Avg
Implied Wkly Rate
vs Current Rate
Scheduled Releases by Funding Period
Paid to Date vs To Fund
Open = in the very next file. Paused = future-dated.
Top Organizations by Scheduled Release
Holdback dollars releasing in the visible window
Forward Run-Rate Projection
Trailing 25-day activation pace → expected weekly release
Funding File Detail
Every scheduled release mapped to its locked funding date. Click a header to sort.
Funding Date
File
Organization
Type
Status
Release Date
Amount
How the forecast is built · assumptions you can audit:
• Source: full real paused-inventory export (6/9), 2,377 holdbacks totaling $5.89M — no sampling or gross-up.
• Expiration / release date = transaction (activation) date + 25-day pause. Holdbacks already past expiry (≤ today) fall into the next file dated 2026-06-11.
• Funding date = expiration mapped to the lock schedule. Files include expirations through the lock day itself (midnight). Lock days are Mon & Wed: expiry Thu–Mon → Mon lock → Tuesday pay; expiry Tue–Wed → Wed lock → Thursday pay. (E.g. expiration 6/10 Wed → 6/11 Thu file.)
• 6/11 file has closed at its actual $1,082,490 (505 holdbacks), vs the $1,007,431 forecast (+7.5%). Logged in the tracker as the first forecast-vs-actual data point. • Past-due paused: 59 export rows have a computed expiration on/before 6/11 but are still paused (held); they roll into the first paused file (6/16).
• Run-rate projection = trailing average of weekly release dollars in this inventory. Forward weeks beyond early July fill in as new activations get approved and start their 25-day countdown.
• PTO-Released HB orgs (expected variance): 6 orgs release on Permission-to-Operate approval, not the 25-day clock — they pay within ~3 days (our-world-energy, ion-solar, empwr-solar, one-world-energy, sunsolar-solutions, inty-power, equity-solar), ~$8.2M of history. The forecast's 25-day assumption fits the other 82 orgs (~26-day median). Variance on late releases is also expected because a holdback rolls to the nearest funding period, not its exact expiry day.